The Republican Party of Riverside County

Independents now favor Republicans by 22%

As Democrats in Washington continue to pursue an unpopular policy agenda, voters have responded by shifting toward Republicans, pushing the GOP into a 4% lead in Gallup’s generic congressional ballot strength test, and a 6% lead in a similar measurement by Rasmussen Reports.

Today, voters prefer Republican Congressional candidates over Democrats by 48% to 44% in data released by Gallup this week.  As recently as July, Democrats held a 6% generic ballot strength advantage, according to Gallup.

Much of the Republican surge can be attributed to a dramatic shift among independent voters away from Democrats and toward Republicans.  In the Gallup survey, 30% of independent voters would favor a Democratic congressional candidate, while 52% would favor the Republican – a 22% advantage.  In July, independents favored Republicans by just 1% over Democrats, 43% to 42%.

REPUBLICAN TURNOUT STRENGTH
Republican candidates historically perform even better than generic ballot strength tests such as Gallup’s, which polls registered voters rather than likely voters.

Gallup puts it this way: “Since Gallup regularly began using the generic ballot to measure registered voters’ preferences for the House of Representatives in 1950, it has been rare for Republicans to have an advantage over Democrats. This is likely because more Americans usually identify as Democrats than as Republicans, but Republicans can offset this typical Democratic advantage in preferences with greater turnout on Election Day.”

The group predicts, “if normal turnout patterns prevail in the coming election, prospects for a good Democratic showing appear slim.”